Startup Runway Predictor
Calculate your startup runway and find out if your business is 'Default Alive' or 'Default Dead'.
Expected month-over-month growth in revenue.
Expected month-over-month growth in overhead costs.
What is the Startup Runway Predictor?
The Startup Runway Predictor is a financial planning tool for startup founders and business owners. Unlike static runway calculators that assume a flat monthly burn rate, this calculator simulates compounding monthly growth in both revenue and expenses. It determines your exact runway limit (when bank cash hits $0), calculates the number of months required to cross over to profitability (break-even), and flags whether your business is "Default Alive" (survives indefinitely on current cash and growth rates) or "Default Dead".
How Does the Startup Runway Predictor Work?
1. Enter Current Cash â The liquid bank balance your company has available today.
2. Provide Revenue & Growth â Enter your current Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) and expected month-over-month revenue growth rate.
3. Provide Expenses & Growth â Enter your average monthly operating expenses (salaries, hosting, office, SaaS) and expected monthly expense growth rate.
4. View Runway Length â See exactly how many months of runway you have left before you run out of cash.
5. Analyze Breakeven & Efficiency â Identify the month you will reach profitability and review your projected 12-month burn.
Formula & Calculation Method
Startup Runway Equations:
- Initial Monthly Net Burn: Monthly Expenses - Monthly Revenue
- Monthly Growth Simulation (compounded monthly):
- Revenue(m) = Revenue(m-1) Ã (1 + Revenue Growth Rate)
- Expenses(m) = Expenses(m-1) Ã (1 + Expense Growth Rate)
- Net Burn(m) = Expenses(m) - Revenue(m)
- Cash(m) = Cash(m-1) - Net Burn(m)
- Default Alive: A startup is marked Default Alive if its projected cash balance at month 60 is higher than its starting balance, and revenue exceeds expenses. Otherwise, it is marked Default Dead.
Example Calculation
Example: Startup with $150,000 cash, earning $12,000 MRR growing at 3%/mo. Expenses are $20,000/mo growing at 1%/mo.
- Month 1: Net Burn = $8,000 | Bank Cash drops to $142,000.
- Month 10: Revenue grows to $15,657. Expenses grow to $21,873. Net Burn decreases to $6,216.
- Month 22: Revenue ($22,467) exceeds Expenses ($24,675) â the business is close to break-even.
- Month 23: Profitability reached! Revenue ($23,141) exceeds Expenses ($24,922).
- Runway Result: Cash never hits $0. The startup reaches profitability in 23 months with $34,800 left in bank cash. The business is Default Alive!
Frequently Asked Questions
**Startup Runway Equations:** - **Initial Monthly Net Burn:** Monthly Expenses - Monthly Revenue - **Monthly Growth Simulation (compounded monthly):** - Revenue(m) = Revenue(m-1) Ã (1 + Revenue Growth Rate) - Expenses(m) = Expenses(m-1) Ã (1 + Expense Growth Rate) - Net Burn(m) = Expenses(m) - Revenue(m) - Cash(m) = Cash(m-1) - Net Burn(m) - **Default Alive:** A startup is marked Default Alive if its projected cash balance at month 60 is higher than its starting balance, and revenue exceeds expenses. Otherwise, it is marked Default Dead.
Disclaimer: This tool is provided for informational and calculation purposes. Output values are estimates based on standard user inputs.