SaaS MRR Growth Forecast
Project your software company's MRR and ARR growth over 12 months with compounding churn and expansion metrics.
Expected month-over-month growth from new customers.
Percentage of MRR lost monthly due to account cancellations.
Growth from existing accounts upgrading plans or buying add-ons.
What is the SaaS MRR Growth Forecast?
The SaaS MRR Growth Forecast is a financial projection engine for software founders, SaaS CFOs, and venture capitalists. Rather than relying on simple linear equations, this calculator models monthly compounded growth by accounting for new customer acquisitions, monthly logo/revenue churn leaks, and expansion/upgrade conversions from your existing customer base. It calculates your end-of-year MRR, Annual Run Rate (ARR), net new ARR added, and Net Revenue Retention (NRR) benchmarks.
How Does the SaaS MRR Growth Forecast Work?
1. Enter Starting MRR â Your current Monthly Recurring Revenue today.
2. Provide MoM Growth (%) â Expected month-over-month growth rate of new customer revenue.
3. Provide Monthly Churn (%) â Percentage of MRR lost each month due to cancellations or downgrades.
4. Enter Expansion Growth (%) â Monthly revenue growth from existing customers upgrading plans or buying add-ons.
5. View 12-Month Forecast â Analyze your projected ending MRR, compounding revenue curve, and annual run rate.
Formula & Calculation Method
Compounding Monthly MRR Projection Logic:
Each month ($m$), the new MRR is simulated sequentially:
- New MRR Added: MRR($m-1$) Ã (MoM Growth Rate)
- Churn MRR Lost: MRR($m-1$) Ã (Monthly Churn Rate)
- Expansion MRR Added: MRR($m-1$) Ã (Expansion Growth Rate)
- Ending MRR ($m$): MRR($m-1$) + New MRR + Expansion MRR - Churn MRR
- Annual Run Rate (ARR): Ending MRR Ã 12
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 100% + Expansion Rate - Churn Rate
Example Calculation
Example: SaaS company starting with $10,000 MRR, growing at 8%/mo, with 3% monthly churn and 1.5% monthly expansion.
- Month 1:
- New MRR = $10,000 Ã 8% = +$800
- Churn MRR = $10,000 Ã 3% = -$300
- Expansion MRR = $10,000 Ã 1.5% = +$150
- Ending MRR = $10,000 + $800 + $150 - $300 = $10,650
- Month 12 (compounded): Ending MRR grows to $21,059
- Results:
- Projected ARR: $21,059 Ã 12 = $252,708 (Up from initial $120,000 ARR)
- Net ARR Added: +$132,708
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 100% + 1.5% - 3% = 98.5%
Frequently Asked Questions
**Compounding Monthly MRR Projection Logic:** Each month ($m$), the new MRR is simulated sequentially: - **New MRR Added:** MRR($m-1$) Ã (MoM Growth Rate) - **Churn MRR Lost:** MRR($m-1$) Ã (Monthly Churn Rate) - **Expansion MRR Added:** MRR($m-1$) Ã (Expansion Growth Rate) - **Ending MRR ($m$):** MRR($m-1$) + New MRR + Expansion MRR - Churn MRR - **Annual Run Rate (ARR):** Ending MRR Ã 12 - **Net Revenue Retention (NRR):** 100% + Expansion Rate - Churn Rate
Disclaimer: This tool is provided for informational and calculation purposes. Output values are estimates based on standard user inputs.